August 2026 Arizona Market Update
Monthly Market Intelligence Portal
The housing market entered this month in a mild buyer's market with little overall change. Demand and supply both declined at similar rates over the past 30 days, largely offsetting each other's influence on pricing trends. The market index reading sits at 80.7, up from 72.2 a year ago but still well under the 90 threshold that separates a buyer's market from a balanced one.
Closed sales last month totaled 6,602, up 7.0 percent from a year earlier, with a 4 percent increase in sales under $800,000, equivalent to an extra 221 sales, and a 23 percent increase in sales over $800,000, equivalent to an extra 209 sales. Over the last 30 days, closings came in at 6,587, up 6.2 percent year-over-year. Homes under contract rose 3.0 percent to 7,742 while active listings fell 3.0 percent to 24,131.
Despite stronger sales, prices remained relatively flat below the $1 million price point. Homes priced below $300,000 recorded an average sales price decline of 1.3 percent compared with a year ago. Homes priced between $300,000 and $800,000 experienced average price-per-square-foot declines of less than one percent. Homes over $1 million posted modest gains of roughly 1.5 to 2 percent.
That is in stark contrast to recent national headlines stating that home prices set new records. If you use the average sales price, the headline holds true. But the median sales price has not reached a record high and has been stagnant for the last couple of years.
The difference matters. Averages skew high when luxury sales are strong. The average sales price over the last 30 days was $622,000, which creates the impression that the typical buyer is spending that much. In reality, only 27 percent of buyers purchased at or above $622,000, while 73 percent purchased below it. The median sales price of $451,000 is $171,000 lower than the average, meaning half of all buyers purchased for $451,000 or less over the past 30 days. That is a far better representation of a typical transaction, and it is not a record high. It remains nearly $30,000 below the peak median price of $480,000 recorded in 2022.
The takeaway is not to assume home values are soaring everywhere, or that luxury sales are lifting all home values. It is simply the difference between averages and medians. Historically, home values have not outperformed the rate of inflation in a buyer's market. In fact, homeowners who purchased within the past four and a half years have generally accumulated little appreciation-based equity. Local income growth, however, has outpaced both inflation and home appreciation for three consecutive years.
On the seller side, the new federal housing law is now on the books, and its effects are unlikely to be felt immediately in the mainstream resale market. Most of the changes are structured to reduce construction costs, ease regulations, and increase financing options through community banks and updated federal housing programs. Other provisions expand grants and forgivable loans for improving aging housing stock, such as older single-family homes owned by low-to-moderate income households. It also prohibits institutions from owning more than 350 homes, with exceptions, which mitigates the risk of future price bubbles but will not have much effect today given low institutional participation in resale purchases.
As for spurring new home development, do not expect it to happen overnight. Builders are painfully aware of what happens when too much supply is added before demand increases. There are other ways to improve affordability without devaluing existing resale homes nearby. To date, new home permits remain 37 percent below their 2021 peak, in line with the pre-2020 rate, and total supply is considered normal. The outlying areas where builders operate are in buyer's markets while more established areas are in weak-to-moderate seller's markets. Expect builders to proceed with caution, but with better flexibility to ramp up construction once demand improves.
In the meantime, it is business as usual for the resale marketplace. The median time on market before contract is 48 days, 55 percent of closings involved seller-paid closing costs last month, and buyers are negotiating within 97 percent of list price on average. Condition and competitive pricing are the keys to keeping marketing times short.
The second half of the year is not typically as robust with buyer activity as the first half, so expect marketing times to get a little longer through the remainder of the summer. Lower mortgage rates would certainly boost demand, but sellers should not base their pricing or marketing strategy on that possibility.
Key Takeaways
- The median sales price is $451,000, up just 1.1% year-over-year and still about $30,000 below the peak median of $480,000 set in 2022, so this is not a record-price market despite national headlines
- Closed sales over the last 30 days totaled 6,587, up 6.2% year-over-year, with the strongest growth in the segment above $800,000 while prices below $1 million stayed essentially flat
- Active listings fell 3.0% year-over-year to 24,131 while homes under contract rose 3.0% to 7,742, a gradual tightening that has nudged the market index from 72.2 to 80.7
- The typical home takes 48 days to go under contract, 55% of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs, and buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
- The new federal housing law is aimed at construction costs, financing, and aging housing stock, so its effects on the resale market will be gradual rather than immediate
Emotional Hooks
- If you have been feeling like homeownership got away from you while prices ran off without you, here is something worth hearing. The typical home is selling for about $30,000 less than the peak four years ago, and your income has outgrown home prices for three years running.
- Half the buyers out there right now are purchasing for $451,000 or less. Not the number in the headlines, the real one. Does that change what you thought was possible for your family?
Logical Hooks
- The headlines say record prices, but that is the average, which luxury sales pull upward. The median is $451,000 and 73% of buyers paid less than the $622,000 average. The typical home is still about $30,000 below its 2022 peak.
- More than half of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs and buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list on average. In a market with 48 days of median time on market, asking for help with your rate or your closing costs is completely normal right now.
Key Statistics
$451,000
Median Sales Price
▲ Up just 1.1% year-over-year and still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak, so despite the national headlines about record prices, values here have been essentially flat
6,587
Closed Sales, Last 30 Days
▲ Up 6.2% year-over-year, proof that buyers are still transacting even while prices hold flat, with the strongest growth above $800,000
48 Days
Median Days on Market
● Unchanged from a year ago but well above the 34 days of two years ago, which means condition and pricing are doing the heavy lifting now
80.7
Market Index Reading
▲ Anything under 90 is a buyer's market and we are at 80.7, up from 72.2 a year ago, so buyers still hold leverage but slightly less than they did last summer
55%
Closings With Seller-Paid Costs
▲ More than half of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs, and buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
Talking Points
Record Prices? Not Here.
You have probably seen the headlines saying home prices just hit a record high. That is true if you use the average sales price, which was about $622,000 over the last 30 days. But only 27% of buyers actually paid that much or more. The median, which is the middle of the market and the far better picture of a typical buyer, is $451,000, and that is still roughly $30,000 below the peak set back in 2022. Averages get pulled up by luxury sales. Medians tell you what is really happening.
Buyers Have Real Leverage, and It Is Quiet Leverage
We are still in a mild buyer's market, and it shows up in the terms more than the price tag. More than half of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs, buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list on average, and the typical home takes 48 days to go under contract. That is a market where asking for a rate buydown or closing cost help is normal rather than insulting, which is a very different conversation than the one buyers were having a few years ago.
Your Income Has Been Winning the Race
Here is a stat almost nobody talks about. Local income growth has outpaced both inflation and home appreciation for three straight years. In a buyer's market, home values historically do not beat inflation, which means anyone who bought within the last four and a half years has built very little equity from appreciation alone. That is frustrating if you were counting on price growth, and it is genuinely good news if you are trying to buy, because affordability has been quietly improving from the income side instead of the price side.
CRM Sequences
Day 1
✉️
Email
Subject: Those record home price headlines? Not the whole story
Preview: The median is $451,000 and still below the 2022 peak
Hi [First Name],
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update, and this month I want to clear something up.
You have probably seen headlines saying home prices just hit record highs. Here is what those headlines are actually measuring.
The average sales price over the last 30 days was about $622,000. But only 27% of buyers actually paid that much or more. Luxury sales pull an average upward, which makes the typical buyer's experience look very different than it really is.
The median, which is the true middle of the market, is $451,000. That is the number where half of all buyers paid that or less. And it is still roughly $30,000 below the peak set back in 2022.
So, no record. Prices here have been essentially flat for a couple of years.
A few other things worth knowing if you are thinking about buying:
- We are still in a mild buyer's market
- The typical home takes 48 days to go under contract, so you have time to think
- 55% of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
That last pair is the real story. The leverage right now is not in a fire sale price, it is in the terms. Closing cost help and rate buydowns are normal asks in this market.
Want me to run a few real payment scenarios for you, including what a seller-paid buydown could do to your monthly number?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update, and this month I want to clear something up.
You have probably seen headlines saying home prices just hit record highs. Here is what those headlines are actually measuring.
The average sales price over the last 30 days was about $622,000. But only 27% of buyers actually paid that much or more. Luxury sales pull an average upward, which makes the typical buyer's experience look very different than it really is.
The median, which is the true middle of the market, is $451,000. That is the number where half of all buyers paid that or less. And it is still roughly $30,000 below the peak set back in 2022.
So, no record. Prices here have been essentially flat for a couple of years.
A few other things worth knowing if you are thinking about buying:
- We are still in a mild buyer's market
- The typical home takes 48 days to go under contract, so you have time to think
- 55% of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
That last pair is the real story. The leverage right now is not in a fire sale price, it is in the terms. Closing cost help and rate buydowns are normal asks in this market.
Want me to run a few real payment scenarios for you, including what a seller-paid buydown could do to your monthly number?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 2
💬
Text
Hey [First Name]! Follow up on the market update I sent. Quick version, those record price headlines are using the average, which luxury sales inflate. The median is $451,000 and still below the 2022 peak. Want me to send a few options in your range?
Day 3
📞
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Quick call because the new market numbers came out and there is a big disconnect between the headlines and what is actually happening. The news is reporting record home prices, but that is based on the average, which was about $622,000 over the last 30 days. Only about a quarter of buyers actually paid that. The median, the real middle, is $451,000 and it is still around $30,000 below where it peaked in 2022. On top of that we are in a mild buyer's market, so more than half of closings last month had the seller paying some of the buyer's closing costs.
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Quick call because the new market numbers came out and there is a big disconnect between the headlines and what is actually happening. The news is reporting record home prices, but that is based on the average, which was about $622,000 over the last 30 days. Only about a quarter of buyers actually paid that. The median, the real middle, is $451,000 and it is still around $30,000 below where it peaked in 2022. On top of that we are in a mild buyer's market, so more than half of closings last month had the seller paying some of the buyer's closing costs.
Conversation Driver:
I am curious, when you think about what you could comfortably spend on a home, what number is in your head? I ask because most people are working off headline numbers that are way off from what the typical buyer is actually paying.
I am curious, when you think about what you could comfortably spend on a home, what number is in your head? I ask because most people are working off headline numbers that are way off from what the typical buyer is actually paying.
Day 4
Rest
Rest Day
Day 5
🎥
Video
Video Script:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, just left a showing and wanted to share something quick. If you saw the headlines about record home prices, they are using the average, and averages get pulled way up by luxury sales. The typical home in our market sold for $451,000, and that is still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. Meanwhile 55% of closings last month had the seller helping with closing costs and homes are taking about 48 days to go under contract. So you get time to think, room to negotiate, and prices that have basically been flat for two years. That is a real window. Want me to show you what your monthly payment would actually look like on a couple of homes this week?
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, just left a showing and wanted to share something quick. If you saw the headlines about record home prices, they are using the average, and averages get pulled way up by luxury sales. The typical home in our market sold for $451,000, and that is still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. Meanwhile 55% of closings last month had the seller helping with closing costs and homes are taking about 48 days to go under contract. So you get time to think, room to negotiate, and prices that have basically been flat for two years. That is a real window. Want me to show you what your monthly payment would actually look like on a couple of homes this week?
Day 6
💬
Text
[First Name], one more that surprised me. Local income growth has outpaced both inflation and home price growth for three straight years. Affordability has quietly been improving from the paycheck side, not the price side. Want to see what that means for your budget?
Day 7
⚡
Multi-Touch Close
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again, last one on this month's numbers. The reason I keep coming back to it is timing. We are still in a mild buyer's market, homes are taking 48 days to go under contract, and more than half of sellers are helping with closing costs. But sales are up over 6% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%, so the market has been quietly tightening. The leverage buyers have right now is real, and it is not permanent.
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again, last one on this month's numbers. The reason I keep coming back to it is timing. We are still in a mild buyer's market, homes are taking 48 days to go under contract, and more than half of sellers are helping with closing costs. But sales are up over 6% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%, so the market has been quietly tightening. The leverage buyers have right now is real, and it is not permanent.
Conversation Driver:
So let me ask you straight, if we found the right house in the next 60 days, would that be exciting or would that be too fast for where you are at?
So let me ask you straight, if we found the right house in the next 60 days, would that be exciting or would that be too fast for where you are at?
Text
Hey [First Name]! Closing the loop on the market update. Median price $451,000, still under the 2022 peak, 48 days on market, and 55% of sellers paying closing costs. That is about as friendly as a market gets for a buyer. Want to grab 20 minutes and run your real numbers?
Subject: The leverage is in the terms, not the price tag
Preview: 55% of sellers paid closing costs last month
Hi [First Name],
One last note on this month's numbers, because I think buyers keep looking for the wrong kind of deal.
Everyone is waiting for prices to drop. Prices are basically flat, up 1.1% from a year ago, and the median of $451,000 is still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. There is no crash coming and there is no boom either.
The actual leverage is in the terms:
- 55% of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
- The typical home takes 48 days to go under contract, so you can get an inspection and think it through
- We are still in a mild buyer's market
A seller-paid rate buydown can move your monthly payment more than a price reduction would, and right now sellers are far more open to that conversation than they were a few years ago.
One more thing worth having in your head. Local income growth has outpaced both inflation and home appreciation for three years running, which means your buying power has been improving even while prices stood still.
Can I put 20 minutes on the calendar this week to show you what a real offer with a buydown would look like in your price range?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
One last note on this month's numbers, because I think buyers keep looking for the wrong kind of deal.
Everyone is waiting for prices to drop. Prices are basically flat, up 1.1% from a year ago, and the median of $451,000 is still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. There is no crash coming and there is no boom either.
The actual leverage is in the terms:
- 55% of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
- The typical home takes 48 days to go under contract, so you can get an inspection and think it through
- We are still in a mild buyer's market
A seller-paid rate buydown can move your monthly payment more than a price reduction would, and right now sellers are far more open to that conversation than they were a few years ago.
One more thing worth having in your head. Local income growth has outpaced both inflation and home appreciation for three years running, which means your buying power has been improving even while prices stood still.
Can I put 20 minutes on the calendar this week to show you what a real offer with a buydown would look like in your price range?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 1
✉️
Email
Subject: Your market update: what the typical buyer is actually paying
Preview: Median $451,000, 48 days on market, and real negotiating room
Hi [First Name],
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update.
If you have been trying to make sense of the housing headlines, this month's data is genuinely clarifying.
The national story says record home prices. Our local data says otherwise:
- The median sales price is $451,000, up just 1.1% from a year ago
- That is still about $30,000 below the peak set back in 2022
- Homes priced under $300,000 actually saw average prices decline 1.3%
- Homes between $300,000 and $800,000 saw price per square foot dip slightly
Where does the record headline come from? The average sales price, which was about $622,000. Averages get pulled upward by luxury sales. Only 27% of buyers actually paid that much or more, so the median is the far more honest picture of what a typical buyer experiences.
And the buying conditions are still favorable:
- We remain in a mild buyer's market
- The typical home takes 48 days to go under contract
- 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
Over the next couple of weeks I will send you a few more pieces of this, including where the real negotiating room is and how a seller-paid buydown changes the monthly math.
In the meantime, want me to pull together what is available in your price range so we have something real to look at?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update.
If you have been trying to make sense of the housing headlines, this month's data is genuinely clarifying.
The national story says record home prices. Our local data says otherwise:
- The median sales price is $451,000, up just 1.1% from a year ago
- That is still about $30,000 below the peak set back in 2022
- Homes priced under $300,000 actually saw average prices decline 1.3%
- Homes between $300,000 and $800,000 saw price per square foot dip slightly
Where does the record headline come from? The average sales price, which was about $622,000. Averages get pulled upward by luxury sales. Only 27% of buyers actually paid that much or more, so the median is the far more honest picture of what a typical buyer experiences.
And the buying conditions are still favorable:
- We remain in a mild buyer's market
- The typical home takes 48 days to go under contract
- 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
Over the next couple of weeks I will send you a few more pieces of this, including where the real negotiating room is and how a seller-paid buydown changes the monthly math.
In the meantime, want me to pull together what is available in your price range so we have something real to look at?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 2
💬
Text
Hey [First Name]! Did the market update come through? Short version, the median home is $451,000 and still under the 2022 peak, and 55% of sellers paid closing costs last month. Want me to send a few options in your range?
Day 3
📞
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Calling because the newest market data is out and it is worth two minutes. The headlines say record prices, but they are quoting the average, which was about $622,000 and gets inflated by luxury sales. The median, meaning half the buyers paid this or less, is $451,000. That is still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. So prices have been basically flat for two years, and meanwhile we are in a mild buyer's market where more than half of sellers are chipping in on closing costs.
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Calling because the newest market data is out and it is worth two minutes. The headlines say record prices, but they are quoting the average, which was about $622,000 and gets inflated by luxury sales. The median, meaning half the buyers paid this or less, is $451,000. That is still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. So prices have been basically flat for two years, and meanwhile we are in a mild buyer's market where more than half of sellers are chipping in on closing costs.
Conversation Driver:
I am curious, has anything changed for you this year that has you thinking about a move? Sometimes it is space, sometimes it is a commute, sometimes it is just being tired of writing a rent check.
I am curious, has anything changed for you this year that has you thinking about a move? Sometimes it is space, sometimes it is a commute, sometimes it is just being tired of writing a rent check.
Day 4
Rest
Rest Day
Day 5
Rest
Rest Day
Day 6
🎥
Video
Video Script:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, out on showings today and I wanted to send you the most useful thing from this month's numbers. There is a $171,000 gap between the average sale price and the median sale price right now. The average is about $622,000 and the median is $451,000. That gap exists because luxury sales pull averages up. So when you see a headline about record prices, remember 73% of buyers paid less than that average. The typical buyer is in a mild buyer's market with 48 days to make a decision and a real shot at getting closing costs covered. Want me to show you what is actually available in your range this week?
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, out on showings today and I wanted to send you the most useful thing from this month's numbers. There is a $171,000 gap between the average sale price and the median sale price right now. The average is about $622,000 and the median is $451,000. That gap exists because luxury sales pull averages up. So when you see a headline about record prices, remember 73% of buyers paid less than that average. The typical buyer is in a mild buyer's market with 48 days to make a decision and a real shot at getting closing costs covered. Want me to show you what is actually available in your range this week?
Day 7
💬
Text
[First Name], one stat I keep sharing. Local income growth has outpaced both inflation and home appreciation three years in a row. Your buying power has been quietly improving even while prices sat flat. Want to see what that looks like for your budget?
Day 8
Rest
Rest Day
Day 9
✉️
Email
Subject: The buydown math most buyers never see
Preview: Why the terms matter more than the price tag right now
Hi [First Name],
A different angle on this month's data, because I think most buyers are negotiating for the wrong thing.
Everyone tries to negotiate the price. In this market, the terms are where the real money is.
Here is what the data shows about how deals are actually getting done:
- 55% of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
- The median home takes 48 days to go under contract
Think about what that means. A seller who has had a home sitting for six or seven weeks is usually more willing to help with your closing costs or buy down your interest rate than to slash the sale price. And for you, a rate buydown often moves your monthly payment more than an equivalent price reduction would, because it changes the cost of the money, not just the size of the loan.
That is a conversation that barely existed a few years ago. Today it is standard.
Also worth knowing: sales are up 6.2% from a year ago while active listings are down 3%. The market has been quietly tightening. Buyer leverage right now is real, but it is not a permanent feature.
Want me to run the actual numbers for you, one scenario with a price reduction and one with a seller-paid buydown, so you can see the difference in your monthly payment?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
A different angle on this month's data, because I think most buyers are negotiating for the wrong thing.
Everyone tries to negotiate the price. In this market, the terms are where the real money is.
Here is what the data shows about how deals are actually getting done:
- 55% of last month's closings included seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
- The median home takes 48 days to go under contract
Think about what that means. A seller who has had a home sitting for six or seven weeks is usually more willing to help with your closing costs or buy down your interest rate than to slash the sale price. And for you, a rate buydown often moves your monthly payment more than an equivalent price reduction would, because it changes the cost of the money, not just the size of the loan.
That is a conversation that barely existed a few years ago. Today it is standard.
Also worth knowing: sales are up 6.2% from a year ago while active listings are down 3%. The market has been quietly tightening. Buyer leverage right now is real, but it is not a permanent feature.
Want me to run the actual numbers for you, one scenario with a price reduction and one with a seller-paid buydown, so you can see the difference in your monthly payment?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 10
📞
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again. Following up on that note about buydowns versus price cuts. The piece I did not write out is the timing side of it. The second half of the year is usually slower for buyer activity, which means less competition for you and more motivated sellers as their homes sit past that 48 day median. That combination tends to fade once the calendar turns and the spring crowd shows up. So the next few months are one of the more workable windows we get.
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again. Following up on that note about buydowns versus price cuts. The piece I did not write out is the timing side of it. The second half of the year is usually slower for buyer activity, which means less competition for you and more motivated sellers as their homes sit past that 48 day median. That combination tends to fade once the calendar turns and the spring crowd shows up. So the next few months are one of the more workable windows we get.
Conversation Driver:
So walk me through your timeline. Is buying something you are hoping to do before the end of the year, or are you thinking further out than that?
So walk me through your timeline. Is buying something you are hoping to do before the end of the year, or are you thinking further out than that?
Day 11
Rest
Rest Day
Day 12
Rest
Rest Day
Day 13
💬
Text
Hey [First Name]! Heads up, buyer activity typically slows in the back half of the year, which means less competition for anyone out looking. With homes averaging 48 days on market that is a decent window. Want to grab 20 minutes this week to map out your numbers?
Day 14
⚡
Multi-Touch Close
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here with the last one on this month's data. Quick summary. The median home is $451,000 and still about $30,000 under the 2022 peak. We are in a mild buyer's market. Homes take 48 days to go under contract. More than half of sellers helped with closing costs last month. That is a market where a prepared buyer can be picky and still get help on terms. The only thing standing between most people and that is not having their numbers nailed down before they find the house.
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here with the last one on this month's data. Quick summary. The median home is $451,000 and still about $30,000 under the 2022 peak. We are in a mild buyer's market. Homes take 48 days to go under contract. More than half of sellers helped with closing costs last month. That is a market where a prepared buyer can be picky and still get help on terms. The only thing standing between most people and that is not having their numbers nailed down before they find the house.
Conversation Driver:
Let me ask you this, if I could show you exactly what your payment would look like on a few real homes this week with and without a seller buydown, would that be helpful right now or is the timing just off?
Let me ask you this, if I could show you exactly what your payment would look like on a few real homes this week with and without a seller buydown, would that be helpful right now or is the timing just off?
Text
[First Name], wrapping up the market update. Median $451,000, still below the 2022 peak, 48 days on market, and over half of sellers helping with closing costs. Want me to run real payment numbers on a couple of homes so you know exactly where you stand?
Subject: Last note on this month's numbers
Preview: What I would do if I were buying right now
Hi [First Name],
Last note from me on this month's data, and then I will let it rest.
If I were buying right now, here is exactly how I would think about it:
1. I would ignore the record price headlines. Those use the average of about $622,000, which luxury sales inflate. The median is $451,000 and 73% of buyers paid below that average.
2. I would stop waiting for a price drop. Prices are up just 1.1% from a year ago and have been flat for two years. This is not a market that is about to crash, and it is not one that is running away either.
3. I would negotiate terms, not just price. 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs, and a buydown usually helps your monthly payment more than a comparable price cut.
4. I would use the 48 days. That is the median time a home sits before going under contract, which means you have room for inspections and a clear head.
5. I would move before the market keeps tightening. Sales are up 6.2% year-over-year and listings are down 3%. The index has moved from 72.2 to 80.7 in a year. Buyer leverage is still here, just less than it was.
Can we put 20 minutes on the calendar this week to run your real numbers?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Last note from me on this month's data, and then I will let it rest.
If I were buying right now, here is exactly how I would think about it:
1. I would ignore the record price headlines. Those use the average of about $622,000, which luxury sales inflate. The median is $451,000 and 73% of buyers paid below that average.
2. I would stop waiting for a price drop. Prices are up just 1.1% from a year ago and have been flat for two years. This is not a market that is about to crash, and it is not one that is running away either.
3. I would negotiate terms, not just price. 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs, and a buydown usually helps your monthly payment more than a comparable price cut.
4. I would use the 48 days. That is the median time a home sits before going under contract, which means you have room for inspections and a clear head.
5. I would move before the market keeps tightening. Sales are up 6.2% year-over-year and listings are down 3%. The index has moved from 72.2 to 80.7 in a year. Buyer leverage is still here, just less than it was.
Can we put 20 minutes on the calendar this week to run your real numbers?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 1
✉️
Email
Subject: Your market update: buyers are back, but they are picky
Preview: Sales up 6.2%, inventory down 3%, and 48 days to go under contract
Hi [First Name],
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update, and there is real news in it for homeowners.
Demand is improving:
- Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago
- Homes under contract are up 3.0%
- Active listings are down 3.0% from a year ago
- The market index moved from 72.2 last year to 80.7 today
That is a market slowly moving back in the seller's direction. Not there yet, we are still technically in a mild buyer's market, but the trend line matters.
Here is the part that decides how your sale goes:
- The median home takes 48 days to go under contract
- 55% of closings last month involved seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
So buyers are here and they are buying, but they are comparing carefully and they are asking for help. Condition and competitive pricing are the two things keeping marketing times short right now. Homes that show well and launch at the right number move. Homes that guess high sit and then sell for less anyway.
One honest note: prices have been essentially flat, up 1.1% from a year ago, and the median of $451,000 is still around $30,000 below the 2022 peak. If you have been assuming your home appreciated the way the headlines suggest, the real number is worth knowing.
Want me to put together a straightforward valuation on your place this week? No pressure, just clarity.
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update, and there is real news in it for homeowners.
Demand is improving:
- Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago
- Homes under contract are up 3.0%
- Active listings are down 3.0% from a year ago
- The market index moved from 72.2 last year to 80.7 today
That is a market slowly moving back in the seller's direction. Not there yet, we are still technically in a mild buyer's market, but the trend line matters.
Here is the part that decides how your sale goes:
- The median home takes 48 days to go under contract
- 55% of closings last month involved seller-paid closing costs
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
So buyers are here and they are buying, but they are comparing carefully and they are asking for help. Condition and competitive pricing are the two things keeping marketing times short right now. Homes that show well and launch at the right number move. Homes that guess high sit and then sell for less anyway.
One honest note: prices have been essentially flat, up 1.1% from a year ago, and the median of $451,000 is still around $30,000 below the 2022 peak. If you have been assuming your home appreciated the way the headlines suggest, the real number is worth knowing.
Want me to put together a straightforward valuation on your place this week? No pressure, just clarity.
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 2
💬
Text
Hey [First Name]! Quick recap on that market update. Sales are up 6.2% from last year and inventory is down 3%, so demand is improving. But homes still take about 48 days to go under contract, so pricing is everything. Want me to run an honest number on your place?
Day 3
📞
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Quick call because the new market numbers came out and there is a piece that matters if you own a home. Demand is genuinely improving. Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%. But we are still in a mild buyer's market, and the typical home takes 48 days to go under contract. So buyers are out there, they are just comparing carefully and asking for closing cost help. More than half of last month's closings had the seller chipping in. That is not a bad market, it is just a market where preparation and pricing do the work.
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Quick call because the new market numbers came out and there is a piece that matters if you own a home. Demand is genuinely improving. Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%. But we are still in a mild buyer's market, and the typical home takes 48 days to go under contract. So buyers are out there, they are just comparing carefully and asking for closing cost help. More than half of last month's closings had the seller chipping in. That is not a bad market, it is just a market where preparation and pricing do the work.
Conversation Driver:
I am curious, when you look at your place, is it still fitting the way you live, or have you started noticing the ways it does not?
I am curious, when you look at your place, is it still fitting the way you live, or have you started noticing the ways it does not?
Day 4
Rest
Rest Day
Day 5
🎥
Video
Video Script:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, just left a listing appointment and wanted to share the one thing from this month's data that homeowners should know. Demand is improving. Sales are up over 6% from a year ago and there are 3% fewer homes on the market than there were last summer. But the typical home still takes 48 days to go under contract, and 55% of closings last month had the seller helping with the buyer's costs. So buyers are buying, they are just being deliberate. Condition and price are what shorten that timeline. Want me to put together an honest valuation on your place so you know exactly where you stand?
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, just left a listing appointment and wanted to share the one thing from this month's data that homeowners should know. Demand is improving. Sales are up over 6% from a year ago and there are 3% fewer homes on the market than there were last summer. But the typical home still takes 48 days to go under contract, and 55% of closings last month had the seller helping with the buyer's costs. So buyers are buying, they are just being deliberate. Condition and price are what shorten that timeline. Want me to put together an honest valuation on your place so you know exactly where you stand?
Day 6
💬
Text
[First Name], one thing worth knowing. Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average right now. So the money is not really lost in negotiation, it is lost by starting too high and sitting. Want me to send you what comparable homes have actually closed at?
Day 7
⚡
Multi-Touch Close
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again, last one on this month's numbers. Here is the honest picture. Demand is up, sales rose over 6% from a year ago, and inventory is down 3%. But buyer activity typically softens in the back half of the year, so marketing times are likely to stretch a bit. The homes that come out prepped and priced right are still moving at 97% of list. The ones that wait for lower rates to save them tend to spend the fall reducing.
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again, last one on this month's numbers. Here is the honest picture. Demand is up, sales rose over 6% from a year ago, and inventory is down 3%. But buyer activity typically softens in the back half of the year, so marketing times are likely to stretch a bit. The homes that come out prepped and priced right are still moving at 97% of list. The ones that wait for lower rates to save them tend to spend the fall reducing.
Conversation Driver:
So let me ask, where does a move sit for you right now? Is it something you are actively thinking about, or is the house exactly where you want to be for a while?
So let me ask, where does a move sit for you right now? Is it something you are actively thinking about, or is the house exactly where you want to be for a while?
Text
Hey [First Name]! Last note on the market update. Sales up 6.2%, inventory down 3%, and homes closing near 97% of list when they are priced right. Want me to run an honest valuation on your place this week so you just have the number?
Subject: Condition and price are the whole strategy right now
Preview: Do not build your plan around a rate cut that may not come
Hi [First Name],
One last note on this month's numbers for homeowners.
The good news first. Demand improved. Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago, homes under contract are up 3.0%, and active listings are down 3.0%. The market index has moved from 72.2 a year ago to 80.7 today, which is a gradual shift back in the seller's direction.
Now the strategy. The median home takes 48 days to go under contract. Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list on average, and 55% of closings last month involved seller-paid closing costs. Condition and competitive pricing are what keep marketing times short. There is no substitute for those two things right now.
And one caution. Buyer activity in the second half of the year is typically lighter than the first half, so expect marketing times to stretch a little. Lower mortgage rates would certainly boost demand, but I would not build a pricing or marketing strategy around something that may or may not happen. Price to the market you are in, not the one you hope arrives.
Can I put together an honest valuation for you this week, including what it would realistically take to sell in six weeks instead of six months?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
One last note on this month's numbers for homeowners.
The good news first. Demand improved. Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago, homes under contract are up 3.0%, and active listings are down 3.0%. The market index has moved from 72.2 a year ago to 80.7 today, which is a gradual shift back in the seller's direction.
Now the strategy. The median home takes 48 days to go under contract. Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list on average, and 55% of closings last month involved seller-paid closing costs. Condition and competitive pricing are what keep marketing times short. There is no substitute for those two things right now.
And one caution. Buyer activity in the second half of the year is typically lighter than the first half, so expect marketing times to stretch a little. Lower mortgage rates would certainly boost demand, but I would not build a pricing or marketing strategy around something that may or may not happen. Price to the market you are in, not the one you hope arrives.
Can I put together an honest valuation for you this week, including what it would realistically take to sell in six weeks instead of six months?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 1
✉️
Email
Subject: Your market update: what your home is actually worth right now
Preview: Demand is improving, but prices have been flat for two years
Hi [First Name],
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update, and I want to give you the honest version rather than the headline version.
The headlines say record home prices. That number comes from the average sales price, which was about $622,000 and gets pulled upward by luxury sales. The median, meaning the true middle of the market, is $451,000. That is up just 1.1% from a year ago and still roughly $30,000 below the peak set in 2022.
So if you have been assuming big appreciation, the real number is worth having.
Here is the genuinely encouraging part:
- Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago
- Homes under contract are up 3.0%
- Active listings are down 3.0%
- The market index has moved from 72.2 a year ago to 80.7 today
Demand is improving and supply is tightening. We are still in a mild buyer's market, but the direction is right.
What that means practically: the median home takes 48 days to go under contract, buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list, and 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs. Condition and competitive pricing are doing the heavy lifting.
Over the next couple weeks I will send you a few more pieces of this, including what the new federal housing law does and does not mean for resale homes.
Want me to run an honest valuation on your place in the meantime? No pressure, just clarity.
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
[Your Name] here with your monthly market update, and I want to give you the honest version rather than the headline version.
The headlines say record home prices. That number comes from the average sales price, which was about $622,000 and gets pulled upward by luxury sales. The median, meaning the true middle of the market, is $451,000. That is up just 1.1% from a year ago and still roughly $30,000 below the peak set in 2022.
So if you have been assuming big appreciation, the real number is worth having.
Here is the genuinely encouraging part:
- Closed sales are up 6.2% from a year ago
- Homes under contract are up 3.0%
- Active listings are down 3.0%
- The market index has moved from 72.2 a year ago to 80.7 today
Demand is improving and supply is tightening. We are still in a mild buyer's market, but the direction is right.
What that means practically: the median home takes 48 days to go under contract, buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list, and 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs. Condition and competitive pricing are doing the heavy lifting.
Over the next couple weeks I will send you a few more pieces of this, including what the new federal housing law does and does not mean for resale homes.
Want me to run an honest valuation on your place in the meantime? No pressure, just clarity.
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 2
💬
Text
Hey [First Name]! Did the market update land? Quick version, demand is up with sales rising 6.2% from a year ago, but prices have been flat and the median is still under the 2022 peak. Want me to run an honest number on your place so you have it?
Day 3
📞
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Quick call because the new numbers came out and I think homeowners are getting a skewed read from the national headlines. Those record price stories use the average, about $622,000, which luxury sales inflate. Our median is $451,000 and still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. So values have been flat, not soaring. The good news is demand is genuinely improving, sales are up over 6% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%, so the market has been tightening in your favor.
Hey [First Name], it is [Your Name]. Quick call because the new numbers came out and I think homeowners are getting a skewed read from the national headlines. Those record price stories use the average, about $622,000, which luxury sales inflate. Our median is $451,000 and still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak. So values have been flat, not soaring. The good news is demand is genuinely improving, sales are up over 6% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%, so the market has been tightening in your favor.
Conversation Driver:
I am curious, has anything shifted at home this year? Sometimes it is family, sometimes work, sometimes just realizing you are paying to maintain space you never use.
I am curious, has anything shifted at home this year? Sometimes it is family, sometimes work, sometimes just realizing you are paying to maintain space you never use.
Day 4
Rest
Rest Day
Day 5
Rest
Rest Day
Day 6
🎥
Video
Video Script:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, just wrapped a listing appointment. The most useful number from this month's data for a homeowner is 97%. That is what buyers are negotiating to on average relative to list price. Which tells you the money is not really lost at the negotiating table, it is lost by starting too high and sitting past that 48 day median. Meanwhile demand is up, sales rose over 6% from a year ago, and there is 3% less competition on the market than last summer. Priced right, this is a very workable market. Want me to put together an honest valuation on your place so you know your actual number?
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, just wrapped a listing appointment. The most useful number from this month's data for a homeowner is 97%. That is what buyers are negotiating to on average relative to list price. Which tells you the money is not really lost at the negotiating table, it is lost by starting too high and sitting past that 48 day median. Meanwhile demand is up, sales rose over 6% from a year ago, and there is 3% less competition on the market than last summer. Priced right, this is a very workable market. Want me to put together an honest valuation on your place so you know your actual number?
Day 7
💬
Text
[First Name], one more from the data. 55% of last month's closings had the seller paying some of the buyer's closing costs. Worth building into your net proceeds math before you list, not after. Want me to walk you through what your net would actually look like?
Day 8
Rest
Rest Day
Day 9
✉️
Email
Subject: What the new housing law actually means for your home
Preview: Short answer: not much right away, and that is fine
Hi [First Name],
A lot of homeowners have asked me about the new federal housing law, so here is the practical read.
Its effects are unlikely to show up quickly in the resale market. Most of the changes are aimed at:
- Reducing construction costs and easing regulations
- Expanding financing through community banks and updated federal housing programs
- Providing grants and forgivable loans to improve aging housing stock, particularly older homes owned by low-to-moderate income households
- Prohibiting institutions from owning more than 350 homes, with exceptions
That last one gets a lot of attention, but institutional buyers make up a small share of resale purchases here, so the near-term impact is limited. It does reduce the risk of future price bubbles, which is a healthy thing long term.
What about a flood of new construction devaluing your home? Not likely soon. Builders remember exactly what happens when supply gets added before demand shows up. New home permits are still 37% below their 2021 peak, roughly in line with pre-2020 levels, and total supply is considered normal. Builders in the outlying areas are already working in buyer's markets, while more established areas remain weak-to-moderate seller's markets. Expect caution, not a building boom.
So for now, it is business as usual for resale. The median home goes under contract in 48 days, buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list, and 55% of closings involve seller-paid costs. Condition and price are still the whole strategy.
Want me to pull the real comparable sales for your home so you can see where you actually sit?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
A lot of homeowners have asked me about the new federal housing law, so here is the practical read.
Its effects are unlikely to show up quickly in the resale market. Most of the changes are aimed at:
- Reducing construction costs and easing regulations
- Expanding financing through community banks and updated federal housing programs
- Providing grants and forgivable loans to improve aging housing stock, particularly older homes owned by low-to-moderate income households
- Prohibiting institutions from owning more than 350 homes, with exceptions
That last one gets a lot of attention, but institutional buyers make up a small share of resale purchases here, so the near-term impact is limited. It does reduce the risk of future price bubbles, which is a healthy thing long term.
What about a flood of new construction devaluing your home? Not likely soon. Builders remember exactly what happens when supply gets added before demand shows up. New home permits are still 37% below their 2021 peak, roughly in line with pre-2020 levels, and total supply is considered normal. Builders in the outlying areas are already working in buyer's markets, while more established areas remain weak-to-moderate seller's markets. Expect caution, not a building boom.
So for now, it is business as usual for resale. The median home goes under contract in 48 days, buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list, and 55% of closings involve seller-paid costs. Condition and price are still the whole strategy.
Want me to pull the real comparable sales for your home so you can see where you actually sit?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Day 10
📞
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again, following up on that note about the new housing law. The short version is that nothing about it changes what your home is worth this year. What does change your outcome is timing and preparation. Buyer activity typically softens in the back half of the year, so marketing times usually stretch through the end of summer and into fall. A lot of sellers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop and rescue their pricing. I would not build a plan around that. The sellers who prepare now get to choose their window instead of reacting to it.
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] again, following up on that note about the new housing law. The short version is that nothing about it changes what your home is worth this year. What does change your outcome is timing and preparation. Buyer activity typically softens in the back half of the year, so marketing times usually stretch through the end of summer and into fall. A lot of sellers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop and rescue their pricing. I would not build a plan around that. The sellers who prepare now get to choose their window instead of reacting to it.
Conversation Driver:
Let me ask you this, if you were going to move at some point in the next year or two, what would need to line up first? Is it the equity number, the next place, or the timing itself?
Let me ask you this, if you were going to move at some point in the next year or two, what would need to line up first? Is it the equity number, the next place, or the timing itself?
Day 11
Rest
Rest Day
Day 12
Rest
Rest Day
Day 13
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Text
Hey [First Name]! One last thought from this month's data. Inventory is down 3% from last year and sales are up 6.2%, so there is less competition and more buyers than there were last summer. That combination does not last forever. Want me to run your number this week?
Day 14
⚡
Multi-Touch Close
Call
Talk Track:
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, last one on this month's numbers. Here it is in three lines. Demand is improving, sales are up 6.2% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%. Prices are flat, so your value is steady rather than climbing. And homes that are prepped and priced correctly are still closing near 97% of list within about 48 days. The sellers who struggle are the ones betting on a rate cut to bail out an optimistic price. That does not have to be you.
Hey [First Name], [Your Name] here, last one on this month's numbers. Here it is in three lines. Demand is improving, sales are up 6.2% from a year ago and inventory is down 3%. Prices are flat, so your value is steady rather than climbing. And homes that are prepped and priced correctly are still closing near 97% of list within about 48 days. The sellers who struggle are the ones betting on a rate cut to bail out an optimistic price. That does not have to be you.
Conversation Driver:
So honestly, where does a move sit for you right now, is it a this-year conversation, a someday conversation, or are you happily staying put?
So honestly, where does a move sit for you right now, is it a this-year conversation, a someday conversation, or are you happily staying put?
Text
[First Name], wrapping up the market update. Demand up, inventory down, prices flat, and well-priced homes closing near 97% of list in about 48 days. Want me to run an honest valuation this week so you just have your number?
Subject: Last note: your number, and why now is a good time to know it
Preview: Even if you are not moving for a year or two
Hi [First Name],
Last note from me on this month's data.
The summary for homeowners:
- The median sales price is $451,000, up 1.1% from a year ago and still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak
- Closed sales are up 6.2% year-over-year while active listings are down 3.0%
- The median home goes under contract in 48 days
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
- 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs
So, values are steady rather than soaring, demand is improving, and the market rewards preparation and accurate pricing more than anything else.
One piece of context that surprises people. Historically, home values do not outpace inflation in a buyer's market, and anyone who purchased in the last four and a half years has built relatively little equity from appreciation alone. Meanwhile local income growth has beaten both inflation and home appreciation for three straight years. That is a market where your financial position is likely stronger than your home's price growth suggests, which is worth understanding before you make any decision.
Here is why I would want to know your number even if a move is a year or two out. Most people who sell are not timing a market. They are responding to something in life, a job, a family change, a downsize. The homeowners who already know their equity position get to make a calm decision when that happens instead of a rushed one.
Can I put together an honest valuation for you this week so it is simply in your back pocket?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
Last note from me on this month's data.
The summary for homeowners:
- The median sales price is $451,000, up 1.1% from a year ago and still about $30,000 below the 2022 peak
- Closed sales are up 6.2% year-over-year while active listings are down 3.0%
- The median home goes under contract in 48 days
- Buyers are negotiating to about 97% of list price on average
- 55% of closings last month included seller-paid closing costs
So, values are steady rather than soaring, demand is improving, and the market rewards preparation and accurate pricing more than anything else.
One piece of context that surprises people. Historically, home values do not outpace inflation in a buyer's market, and anyone who purchased in the last four and a half years has built relatively little equity from appreciation alone. Meanwhile local income growth has beaten both inflation and home appreciation for three straight years. That is a market where your financial position is likely stronger than your home's price growth suggests, which is worth understanding before you make any decision.
Here is why I would want to know your number even if a move is a year or two out. Most people who sell are not timing a market. They are responding to something in life, a job, a family change, a downsize. The homeowners who already know their equity position get to make a calm decision when that happens instead of a rushed one.
Can I put together an honest valuation for you this week so it is simply in your back pocket?
Talk soon,
[Your Name]
✉️ Email
💬 Text
📞 Call
🎥 Video
⚡ Multi-Touch